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Will Race Decide the 2008 Election?

Posted on September 22nd, 2008 by Paul Bernish

The Freedom Center sees as part of its Vision to be a safe house for dialog on issues related to freedom.  Such a discussion — given our national history — must sooner or later acknowledge that race (or more specifically, the racial divide separating blacks and whites) is ever-present as a subtext in virtually every aspect of society:  political, social, economic, educational, and cultural.

With a candidate of color seeking the White House as the nominee of a major political party, race is no longer a hidden issue.  Increasingly, it is beginning to shape the national conversation about who shall lead the United States in the next Administration.

The latest indication that race continues to sharply divide whites and blacks in the U.S. comes from an Associated Press-Yahoo News survey conducted in association with Stanford University. It shows that a substantial portion of white Americans still harbor negative feelings toward blacks. It shows that blacks and whites disagree tremendously on how much racial prejudice exists, whose fault it is and how much influence blacks have in politics.

One result is that Barack Obama’s path to the presidency is steeper than it would be if he were white. In fact, the AP report, the poll suggests that racial prejudice could cost Obama up to 6 percentage points this fall — a significant deficit to overcome in light of the fact that the last two presidential elections were decided by much smaller margins.

The AP-Yahoo News poll of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27-Sept. 5, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. It was designed to plumb people’s racial attitudes, and particularly how those attitudes affect voting.

According to the AP, the survey used the unique methodology of Knowledge Networks, of Menlo Park, Calif., including questions about how well words like “friendly” or “violent” describe blacks; having respondents type sensitive answers into computers, which tends to make them more honest; and using brief flashes of faces of people of different races to detect biases that respondents may not be aware they have.

Stanford University political scientist Paul Sniderman said that in today’s society, racial prejudice “is a deep challenge, and it’s one that Americans in general, and for that matter, political scientists, just haven’t been ready to acknowledge fully.”

For minority candidates such as Obama, he said, “there’s a penalty for prejudice, and it’s not trivial.” If the presidential contest remains close, he said, racial prejudice “might be enough to tip the election.”

New York Times editorial writer Brent Staples looks at the race issue by suggesting that one reason Obama’s candidacy is stirring racial feelings is the legacy of black subservience — a remnant of the time when slavery was sanctioned throughout the South.  Seen from this perspective, Staples writes, whites may be uneasy because they are conditioned to think of African Americans as being under the collective thumb of white political and cultural culture.

“But the discomfort with certain forms of black assertiveness is too deeply rooted in the national psyche — and the national language — to just disappear,” Staples writes.  “It has been a persistent theme in the public discourse since Barack Obama became a plausible candidate for the presidency.”

The dilemma facing political observers and pollsters is how to isolate race as a factor from other pressing issues in this year’s election.  By a considerable margin, voters say economic issues are at the top of their list of concerns — a worry that has intensified in the wake of the Wall Street financial breakdown.  Put another way, and more bluntly, if Obama loses to McCain, can the loss be attributed to race, in whole or in part?

What’s your view?  Is race THE issue of the 2008 election?  Is Obama’s candidacy in jeopardy due to the color of his skin, instead of his position on issues? Post a comment below.



6 Responses
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  • UCBearcat07 says:

    I think it is fair to say that if Barack Obama had a pregnant teenage daughter America would be having a completely different conversation. I would like to say that this idea is absolutely ludicrous; however, the issue of race is a prominent issue in this election.

  • DJ says:

    I do not think race is the final decision in this election. I think that democrats are going to be more democratic and republicans are going to be more republican. Republicans have the appeal of the super conservatives with Palin but the presidential candidate, McCain claims to be conservative enough to meet the beliefs if the far right but claims to recognize the need for change in government, appealing to moderates. Democrats have a very strong leader in Obama, who believes just as strongly in their interpretation in what ‘change’ will accomplish in government which will appeal to the majority of people who recognize the need for change but do not necessarily know what it takes to make change.

  • Carson says:

    I think race will play definitely play a factor with some. As much as I hate to say it, I’m not sure if Americans are ready for a black president or a female vice president.

  • Chris McMahon says:

    I don’t think it will be the deciding factor. McCain’s ties to banking industry lobbyists seems to finally have had an impact on the polls this week.

  • Mauser says:

    I would hope that race doesn’t have that much sway in the race… but not everyone thinks like me, and in some parts of the country, it is still very racially divided. However, I increasingly believe that a large majority of Americans are beyond the race issue. We see it, we recognize it, but we remind ourselves that race should not matter and so we put it aside. I no longer care what race or gender any candidate is… only what they are saying about issues important to me. Sadly, neither party does a good job of representing my views. I think we need a new third party!

  • george searing says:

    race will I live in a rural area and the bubbas are alive and well. he has to be ahead by around 9 or 10 percent in the last polls to squeak out a victory. it may not be right fair but who said life is fair

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