The Freedom Blog has posted several articles discussing whether race will play a major, if not decisive role in the 2008 Presidential election.  These articles, by and large, argue that race could have an impact, but that just how much would be difficult for analysts, public opinion pollsters and the media to measure.

The latest speculation, but backed by some intriguing analysis of data from prior elections in which a person of color was a candidate, was posted by the New York Times, in a blog by Michael A. Cohen, a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation.

Cohen argues that if race is to be a factor in November, it could most dramatically play out in how African Americans vote and not, as is commonly perceived, how whites might shy away from supporting Barack Obama. In fact, Cohen writes, Obama is shown in polls to be the overwhelming favorite of what could be termed the “diversity vote:”  African Americans, Hispanics and Arab Americans.

Cohen writes:

“In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio the key for Democratic victory has generally been strong African-American turnout. So even in these three states if Mr. Obama loses some white voters because of his skin color he may cancel that out with support from non-white voters.

“But Mr. Obama’s advantage stretches beyond African-Americans. Four years ago John Kerry won 53 percent of the Hispanic vote versus 44 percent for George Bush. According to the most recent poll of Hispanic voters, Mr. Obama leads in this crucial voting bloc by a whopping 66 percent to 23 percent margin. This advantage could be crucial in states like New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada and to a lesser extent, Iowa and Virginia.

“Most telling, by 3-to-1, respondents said Mr. Obama’s race would “help him as opposed to hurt him,” putting to rest the notion of simmering racial tension between Hispanic and black voters. Indeed, Hillary Clinton’s strong support among Hispanic voters in the Democratic primaries appears not to have been a case of “black-brown” rivalry, but simply that these voters preferred Mrs. Clinton then, and are returning to the Democratic fold now.

Even among smaller segments of the population, Mr. Obama is seeing an advantage. For example, among Arab-Americans, a small but important voting bloc in states like Michigan, Virginia and Ohio, the Democrat has a 21-point advantage.”

Whether these demographic groups turn out to vote in large numbers remains to be seen, Cohen notes.  But at this stage of the campaign, with only a month to go, whatever liabilities Barack Obama may have among some white voters related to race appears to be offset by a commanding advantage among non-white voters.